AIR TENSION!Israel faces Russia policy change, or perhaps political posturing.

Lebanese media outlets as well as Saudi Arabia’s London-based Asharq Al-Awsat have reported that Israel’s freedom of action against Iran in Syria is dwindling as Russia makes changes to its policy vis-à-vis its relationship with Israel. But this so-called reversal of policy by Russia may be manufactured news and does not necessarily reflect reality.
Micky Aharonson, former head of the foreign-relations directorate of the National Security Council in the Prime Minister’s Office and an expert on Russia at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told JNS she does not believe the reports are correct, and said she “doesn’t share the view of the pessimists and their doomsday analyses.”
According to Aharonson, “Russia may be sending signals to the new Israeli government that there are new rules to the game,” but it isn’t exactly a complete reversal in policy.
The unconfirmed July 24 Asharq Al-Awsat report claimed Russian advisers are providing additional support to Syria with improved air-defense systems. In addition, a recent Breaking Defense report claimed this is the first time the Syrians have used the Buk-M2E defense system against Israeli missiles, and that the Israel Defense Forces now plans to rely mostly on long-range standoff weapons, likely from outside Syria’s borders.
According to that report, the change follows an announcement last week by Vadim Kulit, the head of the Russian military reconciliation center in Syria, who said the Russian military for the first time assisted the Syrians in intercepting four missiles launched by Israel.
Jerusalem and Moscow have in recent years “maintained a hotline that allowed the Israeli military to alert Russian forces of incoming strikes,” the report said, claiming that now, however, “communication through the Israel-Russia deconfliction mechanism has effectively ceased.”
But Aharonson believes that mechanism has not completely ended since theoretically, if Russia sends even more highly developed defense systems to Syria and Israel still maintains a high level of attacks, Russia “would lose face.” Russia’s defense ministry is “super-important for Russia since it is its No. 2 main source of state income after gas and oil, and it is a major source of national pride. Russia wouldn’t risk this,” she said.
The Asharq Al-Awsat report claimed that Moscow has “run out of patience” because Israel “continues to ignore Russian calls to set clear rules.”
Aharonson agreed that Russia is growing impatient with Israel but for other reasons, including because they fear that attacks would unintentionally harm Russian assets or personnel and because in Russia’s view, Israeli attacks send a message of instability in Syria.
She also said Russia “perceives Israel as enjoying a free lunch.”
Russia has allowed Israel relative free reign in preventing an Iranian stronghold in Syria. And in 2019, Russia’s military helped Israel recover from Syria the remains of IDF soldier Zachary Baumel, who was killed during the Battle of Sultan Yacoub in the 1982 Lebanon War.

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