Jim Cramer: Market sell-off to last a few weeks

CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" team discusses China's Evergrande, the market sell-off, Fed week and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO: https://cnb.cx/2NGeIvi

U.S. stocks began the week deeply in the red as investors continued to move to the sidelines in September amid several emerging risks for the market.

The Dow Jones Industrial average lost 850 points, or 2.4%, set for its biggest one day drop since October 28 2020. The S&P 500 fell 2.5%, on pace for its worst daily performance since May 12. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.9%.

There were a number of reasons for the sell-off:

Investors fear a contagion sweeping financial markets from the troubled China property market. Hong Kong equities saw a big sell-off during the Asia trading session on Monday. The benchmark Hang Seng index plunged 4% with embattled developer China Evergrande Group on the brink of default.
The Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting Tuesday and investors are worried the central bank will signal it’s ready to start pulling away monetary stimulus amid surging inflation and improvement in the job market.
Covid cases because of the delta variant remain at January levels as colder weather approaches in North America.
September has the worst track record of any month, averaging a 0.4% decline, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. History shows the selling tends to pick up in the back half of the month.
Investors are also concerned about brinkmanship in DC as the deadline to raise the debt ceiling approaches. Congress returned to Washington from recess rushing to pass funding bills to avoid a government shutdown.

Monday’s rout pushed the blue-chip Dow and the Nasdaq more than 5% from their respective record highs, while the S&P 500 is now 4.9% below its all-time high From September 2. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a 5% pullback since October 2020, according to LPL Financial Research.

Stocks linked to global growth were down the most Monday. Ford and Carrier Global lost more than 3%. General Motors and Boeing fell about 2% each. Nucor steel shed 2.8%

Energy stocks tumbled as WTI crude oil fell 2% on concerns about the global economy. The energy sector fell 3.3%, becoming the worst-performing group among the 11 S&P 500 groups. APA shed more than 6%, while Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy both dropped over 5%. Hess also lost 5.3%.

Bond prices gained as investors sought safety. The move pushed the 10-year Treasury yield down by 5 basis points to 1.325%.

Big bank stocks took a hit as the falling rates may crimp profits. Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase were each down more than 2%.

“We think the mid-cycle transition will end with the rolling correction finally hitting the S&P 500,” wrote Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist. “We point to downside risk to earnings revisions, consumer confidence and PMIs.”

Wilson said he believes a “destructive outcome” is looking more likely that results in a pullback of 20% or more. On Friday, University of Michigan’s September consumer sentiment index came in at 71, just slightly above the August level that was the lowest in 9 years.

The Cboe Volatility index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped above the 26 level on Monday, the highest since May.

“We are in an information vacuum at the moment,” said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. “Stalemates in Congress on the debt ceiling, worries on policy changes or mistakes in monetary policy, and a litany of proposed tax increases have dampened the mood for investors. When this occurs, corrections happen.”

Amid Monday’s sell-off, a number of classic defensive stocks provided the broader market with some support. Walmart, Procter & Gamble and Merck all traded in the green. Pfizer rose 1.5% after the drugmaker said its Covid vaccine is safe and appears to generate a robust immune response in kids ages 5 to 11.

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